Federal contractors often rely on spending numbers to detect trends in government acquisition and allocate business development resources accordingly.  Sometimes, however, what government customers say they want is not reflected well in actual spending numbers.  This is particularly true of emerging spend areas, which right now includes AI & Machine Learning and Customer Experience, or “CX”, spending.  A quick look at Federal Procurement Data System (FPDS) data shows that spending identified as being for AI & Machine Learning declined by $300 million from FY’20 to FY’23.  Similarly, spending specifically identified as being for “Customer Experience” or “CX” totaled just under $205 million for all federal agencies.  These numbers likely miss a lot of the business that is happening in these markets. To find out the real picture, though, contractors will have to look more deeply, and potentially spend more resources.  This can be a challenge that can often paint different pictures of the same landscape depending on how data is classified and who is doing the research.  This can lead to considerable confusion and increase the chances for resources to be improperly allocated.  There may be no easy fix to the issue, other than letting a specific market segment mature.  Spending information for “cloud services”, for example, was stated to be at $16.5 billion in FY’23, likely a more accurate number than the others and one which reflects a more mature market where the term “cloud services” is now more widely used.  Until then, however, contractors wanting to track spending in emerging areas should look not only at agency budget forecasts but engage potential customers in discussions on what their project-specific plans are.  Historical spending data is great for looking back but it doesn’t always tell you what lies ahead.  Plan accordingly.